"Three
centuries ago science was transformed by the dramatic new idea that
rules based on mathematical equations could be used to describe
the natural world. My purpose in this book is to initiate another
such transformation, and to introduce a new kind of science that
is based on the much more general types of rules that can be embodied
in simple computer programs."
The Man Who Cracked the Code to Everything
by Steven Levy
Word had been out that Stephen Wolfram, the onetime enfant terrible
of the science world, was working on a book that would Say It All,
a paradigm-busting tome that would not only be the definitive account
on complexity theory but also the opening gambit in a new way to
view the universe. But no one had read it.
Though physically unimposing
with a soft, round face and a droll English accent polished at Eton
and Oxford, Wolfram had already established himself as a larger-than-life
figure in the gossipy world of science. A series of much-discussed
reinventions made him sort of the Bob Dylan of physics. He'd been
a child genius, and at 21 had been the youngest member of the storied
first class of MacArthur genius awards. After laying the groundwork
for a brilliant career in particle physics, he'd suddenly switched
to the untraditional pursuit of studying complex systems, and, to
the establishment's dismay, dared to pioneer the use of computers
as a primary research tool. Then he seemed to turn his back on that
field. He started a software company to sell Mathematica, a computer
language he'd written that did for higher math what the spreadsheet
did for business. It made him a rich man. Now he had supposedly
returned to science to write a book that would make the biggest
splash of all. And, as someone who'd followed his progress since
the mid-1980s, I was going to see some of it.
We agreed to meet for dinner
in Berkeley. As I drove to the restaurant, rain started coming down
in sheets; on the pavement, water ran toward the gutter in twisted,
chaotic rivulets - seemingly unfathomable patterns that I would
never view in the same way after Stephen Wolfram was done with me.
We chatted through dinner, remembering some of our history. And
then he handed over a stack of papers. The type was set and the
diagrams were sharp - apparently he was almost at the page-proof
stage, with publication pending. I'd known about his work in a former
backwater of physics called cellular automata, and as I read the
first few paragraphs, it was clear he was using that research as
a background to make more profound statements. Very profound statements.
As best I could make out in my quick flip through the pages, he
seemed to be saying that the key to the universe was computation:
The entire cosmos, from quantum particles to the formation of galaxies,
was a perpetual runtime flowing from simple rules. Yet despite all
our learning, human beings have missed the point of it all, because
of the elusive nature of complexity. That is, until Stephen Wolfram
came along and uncovered what a few millennia's worth of scientists
had somehow failed to comprehend. Whoa.
I wondered if the pages I was
holding would actually be a part of history. Or would they be regarded
as folly, an act of hubris by a brain-punk who'd been thumbing his
nose at the scientific establishment even before he began to shave?
I handed it back to him, with the assurance that upon its completion
within a few months, I'd get a chance to go through it at my own
pace. And so would the world.
That was 10 years ago.
What happened to Stephen Wolfram
in the interim has become sort of an urban legend in the scientific
community. Not long after our dinner, which occurred in the spring
of 1992, he became, in his own words, a "recluse." He
moved, with the woman he had recently married (a mathematician),
to the Chicago area and started a family. He rarely made the two-hour
drive to Wolfram Research, his thriving software company. Instead,
he put himself in a kind of voluntary house arrest, single-mindedly
devoted to the completion of the book. "He dropped totally
out of the scene in every sense of the word," says his friend
Terrence Sejnowski, a neuroscientist at the Salk Institute. "He
hasn't published a word, he doesn't go to meetings. He's in a self-made
isolation center." To maximize his concentration, Wolfram became
nocturnal: He worked at night, when the world was asleep, and retired
at 8 in the morning.
As the Web emerged and exploded,
as dotcoms boomed and busted, as the White House went from Bush
to Clinton to Bush, he worked. At some point he had decided that
no conventional publisher would provide the attention and exacting
standards that his book demanded. (He had no lack of offers.) So
he decided to do it himself, using the resources of his software
company. It would result in one of the most expensive vanity projects
in history. Or as one friend, Gregory Chaitin, an information theorist
at IBM, puts it, "He reminds me of the noblemen who worked
in science during the 1800s - they did it for the love of it."
Wolfram's days would begin in
mid-afternoon. He'd usually do an hour or two of official business,
operating a multimillion-dollar company by email and conference
call. Early evening hours offered an opportunity for some family
time. Then, as the world retired and distractions fell away, he'd
enter the professionally soundproofed, wood-lined office on the
top floor of his house and immerse himself in the act of remaking
science.
He spent hours running thousands of computer simulations and noting
the results. Because part of his project involved nailing down the
conceptual history of dozens of scientific branches, he'd surf the
Web. "One can devour lots of papers in very short amounts of
time in the middle of the night," he would later explain to
me. He'd begin with an idea, and start downloading papers. Eventually,
"you feel kind of depressed that it's too big a field and you're
never going to understand it." But then, "usually in a
few days it all starts to kind of crystallize and you realize that
there really are only three ideas in this field, and two of them
you don't believe. And sometimes at that stage, when I'm checking
that I've really got all of the ideas, I find it useful to chat
with people. Sometimes you hear about something else. And sometimes
you don't."
Wolfram's friends came to know
the drill. "You get a call at 2 in the morning," says
Sejnowski. "By the morning he knows more than you do."
Every two weeks or so, Wolfram would call an outside expert, but
usually found these sessions unsatisfying. All too often he'd be
disappointed that the alleged master couldn't provide him with the
information he needed.
He pressed on, never a day off.
"I wanted a straight line from where I started to where I wanted
to get to," he says. "I cut off interaction with the outside
world - not that it wouldn't have been fun, I personally like it
- but those little perturbations would make the thing take longer."
On a good night, he'd get a page written, and he'd be a few hundred
words closer to finishing. And so it went, night after night, a
lone explorer inventing his own brand of science while the world
slept.
At various times, it appeared
publication was imminent. Those who purchased a collection of his
scientific papers, issued in hardback in 1994, saw an image of the
cover art for his book, then titled A Science of Complexity ("coming
soon," the caption said, "sure to become a landmark in
the history of modern science"). Over the next few years, Wolfram
teased his public by hinting at the contents in occasional interviews.
But the publication date kept moving back. Wolfram's friends seriously
feared that it would never be completed.
Wolfram predicts an algorithmic
key to the universe that can compute quantum physics - or, say,
reality TV - in four lines of code.
Early last year, Wolfram told
me he was almost finished, this time for real. He promised to send
me an early copy, if I would sign a nondisclosure agreement. A few
days later, A New Kind of Science arrived. My copy (number 26) was
broken up into three thick sections. Together they dwarfed a phone
book. A sticker on the otherwise blank cover was printed with my
name on it. There was a disconcerting warning: "CONFIDENTIAL:
Receipt and perusal of this document permitted pursuant to nondisclosure
agreement ... If you do not have such an agreement please return
this immediately...."
If I thought that the draft
I had glimpsed in 1992 was provocative, it was nothing compared
with the scope and sheer chutzpah of the finished product. Scheduled
to reach stores in May, A New Kind of Science will ignite controversy
in the scientific world. The self-conscious comparisons with Newton's
1687 Principia will undoubtedly earn Wolfram both attention and
derision. Some early readers are drawing analogies instead to Galileo
- not in terms of scientific achievement, but heresy.
At 1,280 pages, the book pushes
the limit of what can be physically bound between two covers. Inside,
it recognizes no boundaries, not only ranging through traditional
fields of science but venturing into the realms of philosophy, theology,
the social sciences, and even extraterrestrial policy. There are
two sections, the larger being a main text of 12 chapters written
in everyday English, with almost no equations, in order to reach
an audience of nonspecialists. (One of his friends, Carnegie Mellon
mathematical logician Dana Scott, complained to Wolfram that A New
Kind of Science reads like USA Today. As if.) Just as important
as the text are hundreds of detailed diagrams, the majority of them
visual representations of experiments run from Mathematica programs.
The second section is a collection
of notes, which includes a piecemeal yet concise history of science
through the filter of a didactic middle-aged, MacArthur-winning
Jedi mind-warrior. It also contains personal notes, bits of Mathematica
code, various mentions of previous work (though bibliographic comments
are scrupulously avoided), and an index of 15,000 entries.
To Wolfram, adopting a relatively
readable style also meant jettisoning all pretense of humility,
a trait that in any case he believes is a waste of time. In a note
titled "Clarity and modesty," he admits to having once
subscribed to the "common style of understated scientific writing"
but concluded that unless he explicitly identified his findings
as the earth-shattering concepts he believed them to be, readers
wouldn't grasp their significance. Of course, the very nature of
his approach - laying his theory out in one Brobdingnagian salvo
- is by nature immodest.
By rejecting the standard protocols
of scientific publication - the release of findings in a series
of refereed, jargon-laden papers with rigorous mathematical proofs
- Wolfram is consciously bypassing the establishment, engaging in
a form of retail science that aims straight for the people. Wolfram
insists that "doing a small piece and telling the world about
it" would have taken him three times longer, and besides, "if
you give them little pieces, they're not going to come up with grand
conclusions."
The book begins with a thunderclap:
"Three centuries
ago science was transformed by the dramatic new idea that rules
based on mathematical equations could be used to describe the natural
world. My purpose in this book is to initiate another such transformation,
and to introduce a new kind of science that is based on the much
more general types of rules that can be embodied in simple computer
programs."
He goes on to explain that by
applying a single key observation - that the most complicated behavior
imaginable arises from very simple rules - one can view and understand
the universe with previously unattainable clarity and insight. The
idea of complexity arising from simple rules - and that the universe
can best be understood by way of the computation it requires to
grind out results from those rules - is at the center of the book.
The big idea is that the algorithm is mightier than the equation.
"Stephen makes the point that Newton developed calculus before
Babbage invented computing - but what if it had been the other way?"
says Rocky Kolb, a Swiss physicist.
Wolfram is not satisfied with simply explaining and justifying his
contentions, but instead makes substantial efforts to apply his
insights to dozens of fields. "What's basically happened is
that I had this idea of how to use simple programs to understand
things about nature, the universe, other stuff," he says. "And
you can start looking at questions that have been around forever,
and you really get somewhere." He invariably introduces each
topic in a similar fashion: Curious to know about _______ [CHOOSE
ANY SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINE] and how his new theories might apply,
he decides to take a look at the history of the field. Amazingly,
he concludes, for hundreds of years so-called experts have failed
to answer key questions that should have been easily resolved centuries
ago. (Wolfram's disappointment in his predecessors is bottomless.)
But when Wolfram applies the ideas from A New Kind of Science, he
begins making progress and expresses the hunch that not long after
his ideas are understood, the biggest problems will quickly be resolved,
transforming the field.
To list only a few examples:
Wolfram finds an exception to the second law of thermodynamics;
conjectures why extraterrestrials might be communicating with us
in messages we can't perceive; explains seeming randomness in financial
markets; defines randomness; elaborates on why the "apparent
freedom of human will" is so convincing; reconstructs the foundations
of mathematics; devises a new way to perform encryption; insists
that Darwinian natural selection is an overrated component in evolution;
and, oh, theorizes that there's a "definite ultimate model
for the universe." What might this be? The mother of all rules;
a single, simple "ultimate rule" that computes everything
from quantum physics to reality television.
The climax of the book
is the principle of computational equivalence, which may as well
be called "Wolfram's law." After hundreds of pages of
laying groundwork, presenting case after case of visual examples
where simple rules generate counterintuitively complex results,
Wolfram concludes that this phenomenon is overwhelmingly commonplace
- it's at the base of everything from morphology to traffic jams.
Then he goes further, stating that once a system achieves a certain,
easily attainable degree of complexity, it's reached the point of
maximum complexity, as measured by the computation required to crank
out the end result. Everything at that level of complexity - and
that means almost everything you can think of, from human thought
to rain hitting pavement - is exactly as complex as anything else.
It's an idea that is at once
liberating and humbling. Wolfram himself considers it the logical
next step from earlier scientific revolutions, each of which disabused
humanity of the notion that there is something "special"
about our species and its place in the scheme of things. (Copernicus
showed we weren't the center of the universe; Darwin proved we were
just another product of evolution.) Basically, he's saying that
all we hold dear - our minds, if not our souls - is a computational
consequence of a simple rule. "It's a very negative conclusion
about the human condition," he admits. "You know, consider
those gas clouds in the universe that are doing a lot of complicated
stuff. What's the difference [computationally] between what they're
doing and what we're doing? It's not easy to see."
The principle of computational
equivalence also puts limits on science itself, ruling many questions
unanswerable because the only way to discover the consequences of
many complex processes is to let things proceed naturally. There's
no shortcut, since our own computational tools are at best only
as powerful as the complicated systems we hope to study.
On the other hand, if the concept
is valid, it portends amazing technological developments. "You
might think machines can't capture nature because these programs
are too simple," Wolfram says. "But the principle of computational
equivalence says that's just not true. These programs can do all
the stuff that happens in nature." By that reasoning, no barriers
exist to prevent machines from thinking as humans do. "I have
little doubt," he writes, "that within a matter of a few
decades what I have done will have led to some dramatic changes
in the foundations of technology - and in our basic ability to take
what the universe provides and apply it for our own human purposes."
Only a few people - mainly friends
of his in the scientific community - have read the book before its
publication. They are vastly impressed, but at this point generally
reluctant to endorse all of it; they say people will take decades
to absorb everything Wolfram is proposing. Not heard from yet are
the voices of the establishment, which undoubtedly will have problems
with the unconventional work and its author. "Most scientists
will find it difficult to believe that there's a better way to do
science," says CERN's Kolb. "It's not the way we've been
trained to think."
Probably the toughest criticism
will come from those who reject Wolfram's ideas because the evidence
for his contentions is based on observing systems contained inside
computers. "When it comes to computer experiments," he
says, "I can just do them and can know absolutely - definitively
- I got the right answer and understand what's going on." Wolfram
can argue at length why this is a valid approach. Ultimately, he
believes, he and his future followers will generate a wealth of
computer-related systems that create phenomena identical to those
found in the natural world - and the weight of the evidence will
convince all but the most hardened skeptics that his ideas are dead-on.
The beginnings of this are rules that seem to produce on a computer
the same results as pigmentation patterns on jaguars and seashells,
the behavior of financial markets, or the growth of leaves.
For now, the skeptics aren't
having it. "Worthless!" says renowned physicist Freeman
Dyson, who received an early copy of A New Kind of Science and required
only a glance before dismissing it. "It's a case of style over
substance."
If Wolfram's ideas ultimately
are refuted, he will be remembered as one more brilliant guy who
went overboard, verging on megalomania. But even if he is wrong,
A New Kind of Science is an incredible achievement, one that will
richly reward adventuresome readers. Of course, if he is right,
his book indeed belongs to history. Either way, the world is about
to reckon with a scientist who's making the biggest leap imaginable:
remaking science itself, with only his computer and his brain.
In a sense, A New Kind of Science is the result of a journey that
began with a computer printout produced by an early Sun workstation
on June 1, 1984. Stephen Wolfram, then 25, was already on his second
career. Born in 1959 to a father who was both a textile manufacturer
and a minor novelist, and a mother who taught philosophy at Oxford,
the young Wolfram was clearly a prodigy - and a handful. "I
guess I was not a very easy kid," Wolfram told me when we first
met in 1984. His baby-sitters would typically leave after a week
or so "because I was terrible to them."
At age 10, he decided to become
a scientist and began operating in much the same isolated manner
that would characterize his later methodology. Almost from the start,
he developed an allergy to the establishment. At 12, he won a scholarship
to Eton, where he astonished teachers with his brilliance and frustrated
them by taking no instruction whatsoever. He made money by doing
other kids' math homework. At 14, he became interested in a particle
physics problem and wound up writing a paper that was accepted by
a prestigious professional journal. He entered Oxford at age 17,
but it is an exaggeration to say he attended it - by his account,
he went to first-year lectures on his first day and found them "awful."
The next two days he dropped in on second- and then third-year lectures,
quickly deciding "it was all too horrible - I wasn't going
to go to any more lectures." So he worked independently, making
no secret of his disdain for the professors he considered his intellectual
inferiors. When he took end-of-year exams, he finished at the top
of his class.
Eventually, after publishing
10 papers, he left Oxford for Caltech, which presented him with
a PhD in theoretical physics just weeks after he turned 20 and hired
him as a faculty member alongside luminaries like Richard Feynman
and Murray Gell-Mann. A year later, he won the MacArthur award.
He considered the surrounding hubbub an annoyance, and during a
network TV interview he conspicuously picked his nose.
At Caltech, he ran into his
first serious professional flap. Wolfram had become interested in
how computers could help the scientific process; he developed SMP,
a computer language that performed tasks like algebra. Because of
Caltech's patent rules, an ugly dispute broke out, and Wolfram was
forever embittered that he was denied sole ownership of what he
considered his creation. He left Caltech for a sinecure at the Institute
for Advanced Study, the Princeton, New Jersey-based former home
of Albert Einstein. But by that time, he was no longer interested
in particle physics. Instead, he began pursuing what he viewed as
more creative areas, "things that people would consider crazy."
Specifically, he became interested in cellular automata.
At the time, the field of cellular
automata, or CAs, oscillated between a science and a computer geek's
plaything. CAs themselves are abstract systems that pose a spreadsheetlike
universe in which individual cells move from one condition to another
- for example, from dark to light - one click at a time, according
to what rules have been set for this evolution. These rules determine
the color of the cells in the next iteration, depending on the conditions
of the current pattern. The word automata refers to the nature of
the process, in which the patterns on the grid evolve depending
not on human intervention but on the rules themselves: Once the
initial condition and those rules are set, all a person can do is
sit back and watch.
The field was the brainchild
of the legendary mathematician John von Neumann, at the suggestion
of his friend Stanislaw Ulam. Von Neumann was interested in the
idea of artificial life, particularly self-reproduction. His claim
- which would be echoed by those who went on to study CAs - was
that these systems should not be seen solely as mathematical abstractions
but as stripped-down versions of the universe itself, wherein the
pageant of cells turned on and off on a checkerboard (or computer
screen) could actually stand for the mechanisms in the physical
world. One computer scientist, Ed Fredkin, the former head of MIT's
famous Project MAC, bent some minds by suggesting that the universe
itself was a giant cellular automaton.
Not surprisingly, Wolfram regarded
the early work in the field as "just awful" and proceeded
to brand the category as his own, somewhat to the dismay of the
small CA community, which appreciated the attention Wolfram brought
but resented his imperious attitude. ("Wolfram is an absolutely
brilliant guy, and he's right about the new kind of science that
underlies everything," says Fredkin. "But he can't escape
a compulsion to take credit.") Wolfram methodically analyzed
sets of rules, developing a classification system that rated the
complexity of various CAs - all with the intention of clarifying
the way we view complexity in the real world. He did this by studying
and numbering all possible rule sets in one-dimensional CAs. These
were elementary systems in which the CA grows one line at a time;
the state - dark or light - of each cell on the new line is determined
by a rule that depends on the conditions on the previous line.
Wolfram also began to build
a case that the same mechanisms that determined the outcome of cellular-automata
experiments were omnipresent in nature itself. He was often photographed
with seashells whose pigment displayed a pattern that was eerily
similar to those produced in his computer printouts of simple CA
experiments.
Wolfram was a controversial
figure at the Princeton institute in the mid-1980s. Established
scientists considered his operation on the third floor of Fuld Hall,
where he and his assistants sat in front of workstations and performed
digital experiments, as somehow unseemly, not the way serious research
should be conducted. "I'm not sure that what he does can be
called science," the institute's Dyson told me around that
time. "It's more in the nature of mathematical games. He clearly
is not a physicist anymore." And Heinz Pagels, the late physicist
who headed the New York Academy of Sciences, told me, "The
wunderkind has no clothes."
For his part, Wolfram felt he could have used more outrage - it
would have meant people were thinking about those ideas and taking
them seriously. In Wolfram's mind, studying the results of cellular-automata
runs on the computer could unlock deep truths about the universe
itself. The proof for him came one fateful day in June 1984 when
he printed out the results of a 2-D cellular-automata experiment
using Rule 30.
When Wolfram studied the printouts
on an airline flight from New York to London, he was thunderstruck.
This experiment used the simplest of initial conditions - one darkened
cell on the top row. And the process of generating future states
was elementary. Yet Rule 30 yielded an eruption of the most complicated,
seemingly random output imaginable. (See page 135.) In fact, there
seemed no end to it. As Wolfram studied it, he began to realize
that there was something profound about how such complexity would
arise from a simple program and began to wonder about the implications.
Eventually, he would conclude that Rule 30 was not an anomaly but
a crucial window onto the way the world operated.
Wolfram's cellular-automata
work came to be cited in more than 10,000 papers. He felt, however,
that even his enthusiasts were missing the point - that CAs held
the key to a vast understanding of the world. Aware that the Institute
for Advanced Study was not eager to host his explorations, he left
for the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, which gave him
his own institute, the Center for Complex Systems Research. But
after two years, he left the center - among his many complaints,
he says, "the goofiest thing was that I was supposed to be
the guy who went out to raise money, while other people got to do
science." By then, he had seemingly been diverted by another
project - creating a computer language called Mathematica, which
took his SMP work at Caltech to a much higher level. He started
Wolfram Research and hired top scientists and mathematicians to
staff its Champaign headquarters. The software came out in 1988
and was an instant success. By 1995, more than a million people
were using it.
Mathematica turned out to be
invaluable to Wolfram, allowing him to pursue his real dream of
making a mammoth contribution to scientific understanding. On a
mundane level, the company brought him the wealth and resources
to proceed with his book without having to worry about income or
research grants - since Wolfram Research was a private company,
with the majority of shares owned by its founder, there was no problem
spending millions of dollars on a personal science project. More
significantly, the creator of the software turned out to be its
most avid consumer. Mathematica was a powerful tool to run the experiments
that formed the basis of his "new kind of science." A
couple of years after the program was finished, Wolfram gushed to
me that "I've been going back and redoing problems, and it's
spectacular - things that once took me a week to do now take a half
hour." Wolfram had given himself the ammunition to remake science,
and in 1991, he withdrew his physical presence from the company
to concentrate on the book. So began his days as a recluse.
On a crisp morning in February
this year, I am off to Champaign to sit down with Wolfram for the
first time since that night in Berkeley a decade ago. Only a few
days before, he absolutely, positively completed A New Kind of Science.
Still trying to acclimate himself to the weird circumstance of being
awake at 9 in the morning, the CEO is making a rare appearance at
Wolfram Research, located in an six-story office building not far
from the university campus, to review some projects. (The book itself
- 50,000 copies - is about to roll off presses at a Canadian printer,
the only operation in the western hemisphere that Wolfram judged
capable of rendering the high-definition graphics and illustrations.
It will cost $12 a copy to print - five or six times that of a conventional
book - making its $45 cover price somewhat of a bargain.) What was
a mop of unruly hair when we last met is now a balding pate. He
wears a tweed jacket, slacks, and sneakers, the picture of a software
executive.
For someone with so little patience
for human failing, his management style is fairly loose, though
clearly his employees are deferential to him. At a Mathematica design
review, he flirts with sarcasm - "Why would anyone want to
do this?" he says of a proposed feature - but listens to the
answer and finally concludes that the proposal is impressive. "I
wouldn't have been here for 11 years if he was the terror that people
say he is," says marketing exec Jean Buck, who assumes a maternal
tolerance toward the quirks of her employer. (She finds it humorous
that when she told her boss she'd be busy on Super Bowl Sunday,
he asked, "What's that?") The 300 people at Wolfram Research
know they are free to act independently, but only in the spirit
of their leader. Though during the Internet boom some hoped that
Wolfram Research would go public, Theo Gray, a scientist who helped
Wolfram form the business, says that was never a possibility. "It
wouldn't be Stephen's company then," he says.
Later in the day, I meet with
a group who assisted Wolfram on A New Kind of Science. There are
perhaps a dozen people in the room, and like prisoners shown the
open gate after serving a long sentence, everybody is a little stunned
that the book is actually finished. There are fact checkers, proofreaders,
graphics specialists, PhDs who helped run the computer experiments,
the art director, the production manager - a disparate collection
who were part scientific staff, part publishing staff. Each day,
while Wolfram was sleeping, this contingent would be busily generating
graphics, securing permissions, and looking for the perfect photograph
of broccoli. (One tells a story of when Wolfram rejected a picture
of a panther "because it had a funny expression.") As
the book got bigger, there were conflicts over how to handle its
complexity. At one point there was actually a debate about whether
there should be notes to the notes.
In some ways, A New Kind of Science was run like a software project.
The work was always to be delivered as a digitally typeset file
with all the graphics included: one massive load of bits. So instead
of drafts, there were frequent "builds," some of them
buggier than others. There were alpha versions and beta versions.
Some of the engineers are developing A New Kind of Science Explorer,
a PC application with a mini-Mathematica program that allows people
to run the experiments in the book and begin to do research projects
of their own. Wolfram feels very strongly that "his" kind
science is one through which amateurs will unearth major discoveries,
and he has been thinking of various ways to assist them.
Suddenly, it occurs to me that
someone might be missing in this group. "Who actually edited
the book?" I ask. There is a puzzled silence in the room. An
editor? Finally Wolfram says, "No one." Except, of course,
the author. Later on, he explains. "I think in terms of 'This
is my book and I'm fully responsible for it.'"
After Wolfram's day at his software
company, we drive through town to a nondescript steak, chicken,
and salad house in Urbana to continue our discussion. I ask him
what he thinks the reaction will be to A New Kind of Science. He
doesn't guess, and in a sense doesn't care. "I think when I
started this project I was still very interested in saying, 'What
will other people think?' After a while I realized, 'Why am I really
doing this? Is it really worth my while to spend 10 years of my
life doing something to get other people to say positive things
about it?' No, it's not. Absolutely not. And actually, from some
very cynical point of view, my opinion of the world at large isn't
high enough for me really to be interested in what they have to
say."
So when people complain - and
they will - that Wolfram's "new kind of science" is built
not on proofs but on looking at computer readouts, he'll see their
complaints as the howling of dinosaurs. "They'll probably talk
derisively about little programs and games," he says. "But
it's not really engagement, it's like, 'Let's just hope it goes
away.' It's like the print publishers hoping the Web goes away."
He prefers to take the long view. He's absolutely confident that
his work is sound and is ready to let people absorb it over a period
of decades. He believes that in each area he discusses, other researchers
will confirm his findings. He thinks that eventually the principle
of computational equivalence will be as commonly accepted as gravity.
Meanwhile, he says, his main concern is that people actually read
the book, and he professes to fear not those who will attack him
but bandwagon-riders who will scan a chapter or two and then generate
garbage based on their misimpressions.
As the meal progresses, our
talk turns to an enigma that is almost certainly a computational
equivalent of the mysteries of the universe: Wolfram himself. I
point out that in a strange way, this 1,200-page tome with pictures
and diagrams of computer experiments and animal skins and seashells
and axioms is an extremely personal book. Presented in the guise
of science are passionate contentions about religion and free will
and the nature of humanity. The discoveries track its author's obsessions.
In a sense, A New Kind of Science is Stephen Wolfram's autobiography.
"There are definitely elements
of expression there," he admits. "I think 10, 15 years
ago, I could not have done a decent job. I've seen more of people's
lives now. Back then, I would have said, 'I don't care about theology,
that's not my thing.' But as I kept looking at the historical context,
I started realizing that I actually did care about these things
and had something to say about them."
The book also is arguably a
rite of passage for him as a man. When I first met Wolfram in 1984,
he insouciantly dissed his parents' careers. "I've never read
[my father's] novels.... They get good reviews, but they don't sell
terribly many copies," he told me. Ironically, A New Kind of
Science is not just a scientific excursion but also a literary excursion.
Like James Joyce, Wolfram believes his ideal reader is one who will
devote a lifetime to reading his book, and like Joyce the novelist,
Stephen Wolfram (a novelist's son) has produced an encyclopedic
world.
If the expression of the book
represents his father's craft, the application of his ideas to the
riddles of human existence reflects the concerns of his mother,
the Oxford philosophy professor, who died in 1993. Back in 1984,
he said of her, "I have no idea what she does, and the only
consequence of her being in that profession is that I will never
consider doing anything that's labeled philosophy." But A New
Kind of Science is nothing if not a book on philosophy. One of his
friends suggests it should be called Principia Computatus. And in
another irony not lost on the author, Wolfram's research led him
to a textbook on logic written by his mother. "I actually cared
about the answers to the questions," he says.
I think back to Wolfram as a
brash, trash-talking 25-year-old. Now he's a family man ("Having
kids has made him much more of a human being," says a Wolfram
Research exec) whose new work, while as iconoclastic as ever, turns
out to be a homecoming for him, an outcome that seemed totally unpredictable.
Only by nature running its inscrutable computations could the result
become apparent.
As dessert is served, I bring
up the secret-of-the-universe question. Wolfram's theory that there
is a single rule at the heart of everything - a single simple algorithm
that, in effect, generates all the rules of physics and everything
else - is bound to be one of his most controversial claims, a theory
that even some of his close friends in physics aren't buying. Furthermore,
Wolfram rubs our faces in the dreary implications of his contention.
Not only does a single measly rule account for everything, but if
one day we actually see the rule, he predicts, we'll probably find
it unimpressive. "One might expect," he writes, "that
in the end there would be nothing special about the rule for our
universe - just as there has turned out to be nothing special about
our position in the solar system or the galaxy."
I have some trouble with this.
"I've got to ask you,"
I say. "How long do you envision this rule of the universe
to be?"
"I'm guessing it's really
very short."
"Like how long?"
"I don't know. In Mathematica,
for example, perhaps three, four lines of code."
"Four lines of code?"
"That's what I'm guessing.
I mean, I don't really know, but I think there's no obvious evidence
that it's any longer than that. Now, in a sense, it will be short
if Mathematica was a well-designed language. It will be longer if
it doesn't happen to be as well-designed, in the sense that that
doesn't happen to be the way the universe works. But we're not looking
at 25,000 lines of code or something. We're looking at a handful
of lines of code."
"So it's not like Windows?"
"No." Wolfram laughs.
"It's not like Windows. It's going to be something small, I
think. I've certainly wondered. You ask about the theological questions
and things. I think there will be a time when one will sort of hold
those lines of code in one's hand, and that is the universe. And
what does this mean? You know, how do we then feel about things,
if this whole thing is just five lines of code or something? And
in a sense, that is a very unsatisfying conclusion, that sort of
everything that's going on, everything out there, is all just this
five lines of code we're running."
There is a moment of silence
between us. In the background are the clatter of dishes and silverware,
noises that come from a restaurant in Urbana, Illinois, preparing
for closing time. The mundane but complex stuff of equivalent computational
processes.
"Well," I say finally,
"I guess we'd feel really bad if it wasn't well-written."
Wolfram grins. "Yes, right."
Another pause. "So do you
believe we'll find this code in your lifetime?"
"I hope so. Yeah."
"Do you want to find it?"
"Sure. That'd be nice."
"Is that your next thing
to do?"
The self-styled Newton of our
times smiles, as if to himself. "I'd like to think about that.
Yeah."
- STEVEN LEVY
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